← Go back

Market Insight l Prinsjesdag 2025

2 October 2025

The 2026 Budget Memorandum anticipates an average purchasing power increase of 1.3%. However, in his Speech from the Throne, the King expressed concern about the investment climate, emphasizing that the confidence of entrepreneurs and investors is essential for economic growth. Since the current government is in caretaker mode, the 2026 Tax Plan contains relatively few new policy proposals, focusing instead on ongoing initiatives and technical adjustments. Nevertheless, the proposed measures will result in higher taxes on wealth and consumption, with clear implications for the real estate market.

Box 3 – Higher tax burden on (private) real estate ownership

New measures

  • The notional return on other assets will rise by 1.78% to 7.78% in 2026
  • The tax-free allowance will decrease from €57,684 to €51,396
  • The counter-evidence scheme will remain in place, allowing investors with a lower actual return to demonstrate this and be taxed only on their actual yield

Impact

  • The net return on property rentals will decrease for many private investors
  • Administrative burdens will increase due to the need to prove actual returns
  • Private real estate investment remains relatively unattractive

Incentive for flexible and conversion housing

New measures

  • Municipalities will receive a €20,000 subsidy per newly developed dwelling under the Incentive Scheme for Flexible and Conversion Housing
  • At least 30% of these homes must be allocated to status holders or displaced persons

Impact

  • Municipalities gain financial room for housing development
  • Acceleration of temporary housing projects
  • Potential opportunities for investors in temporary accommodation

VAT increase on accommodation to 21%

New measures

  • As of 2026, the VAT rate for accommodation will increase from 9% to 21%

Impact

  • Higher room rates are likely to result in lower occupancy rates and/or average daily rates
  • This lower revenue negatively affects hotel valuations and hospitality real estate

In conclusion, we observe increasing pressure on returns for private investors and hotel property owners. At the same time, municipalities are gaining financial support for housing construction, while the reduction of the real estate transfer tax (OVB) on residential property to 8% remains unchanged, a positive impulse in an otherwise challenging fiscal environment.