Monthly Market Insight l Trumps handelsbeleid en de Nederlandse vastgoedmarkt
26 February 2025
On November 5, 2024, the American electorate elected Republican Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. His statements about potentially withdrawing the U.S. from NATO and implementing a protectionist trade policy have created significant uncertainty regarding the possible impact on capital markets within the European Union.
The Potential Impact of U.S. Protectionism on the European Economy
Donald Trump’s economic agenda focuses on protectionism, aiming to reduce imports through tariffs. This has already resulted in statements about import duties on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, with additional plans hinted at for products from the European Union.
For the Netherlands, which holds the second-largest trade surplus in the EU, such measures could slow down economic growth. In the long term, this may negatively affect the value of commercial real estate, including logistics, industrial, retail, and hospitality properties.
On the other hand, shifts in U.S. policy could also positively influence European capital markets. If European (and non-European) investors lose confidence in the U.S. market, they may reallocate capital toward the EU. These inflows could stimulate the European economy, benefiting the real estate sector over time. However, the threat of a trade war could also reduce U.S. capital inflows into the EU, lowering liquidity in the real estate market.
Volatility Creates an Incentive to Invest in “Safe Haven Assets”
Trump’s presidency introduces a high degree of uncertainty and volatility across global capital markets. As a result, investors may increasingly turn to “safe haven assets.”
Dutch residential real estate fits this profile well, due to its relatively countercyclical nature and the persistent housing shortage, which continues to drive rental and purchase prices upward.
This shift may present an opportunity for capital inflows from investors willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability and resilience of the Dutch housing market.
Over the past year, we’ve seen the residential real estate market gradually regain strength, with growing investor confidence, supported in part by (projected) declining interest rates.
It remains to be seen whether the policy changes in the U.S. will accelerate this positive trend or cause it to stall.